Rates and guarantees
Normal rarity weights are 45%, 30%, 17%, 6.5% and 1.5% for one through five stars. The game increments that banner’s pity before rolling: a counter of 69 makes your next pull guaranteed five-star. Pulling any five-star resets the counter.
What a ten-pull guarantees
A ten-pull costs ten normal tickets or one ×10 ticket. If the first nine results include no four- or five-star, the last pull rolls only four- and five-star weights. Five-star chance on that forced roll is 1.5 ÷ (6.5 + 1.5) = 18.75%. Hard pity has priority.
Regional pools and duplicates
There are nine generation banners with independent pity counters. The pool uses generation, rarity and sprite availability. If a rarity is empty, the game searches adjacent rarities. Normal duplicate refunds are 15, 30, 60, 120 and 300 coins by rarity. A duplicate shiny is rerouted to a missing shiny at that rarity when possible; if all are owned, the result becomes normal.
Shiny and targeted odds
The base shiny check is 1% when the selected partner has a shiny sprite. It is not a separate five-star roll. Targeted species odds depend on pool size, rarity guarantees and your collection state. The calculator below handles rarity and pity exactly; it does not claim species-specific or new-shiny acquisition odds.
A worked ticket decision
Starting at regional pity zero, ten separate single pulls give a 14.0269558% chance of at least one five-star. One ten-pull batch gives 22.1717393%, because of its conditional final-slot guarantee. At pity 69, the next pull is 100% five-star. These describe rarity occurrence, not a named species or a new shiny.